Buresh Blog: The late season November nemesis that was Nicole – ActionNewsJax.com

Nov 18, 2022 by The Beat Maker - 0 Comments

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Buresh Blog
Jacksonville, FL — “Talking the Tropics With Mike” is updated every day through the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30th.
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was off to a slow start with no significant threats to the U.S. through Aug. But Sept., Oct. & Nov. have more than made up for it with 11 named storms over the 3 month period.
The latest storm – Nicole – developed from an upper level low over the Central Atlantic that helped develop a non-tropical then subtropical low several hundred miles north of Puerto Rico & well to the east of the Bahamas. In the end, Nicole’s hit on Florida’s east coast was the latest on record for a hurricane landfall & the 2nd latest U.S. hurricane landfall on record. Only Cat. 2 Kate on Nov. 22nd, 1985 was later (Fl. Panhandle near Mexico Beach). For Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga., Nicole was one of the latest strong tropical cyclones to ever heavily impact the local area.

On Fri., Nov. 3rd I sent the following memo to our First Alert weather team & station management:
A major storm will hit the local area next week. There are still plenty of question marks when it comes to exact details, but in a general sense – wind & rain – there will be widespread impacts.
Stay tuned for updates…
In “Talking the Tropics With Mike” the week of Oct. 30th, I wrote about the “high likelihood of tropical development over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next 1-2 weeks”. Halloween, Mon. Oct. 31st: “The Caribbean is a typical “hot bed” for late season development & will be an area that needs to closely watched for additional development over the next 1-2 weeks or so. In fact, most global models shows low pressure trying to develop over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic this coming weekend into the following week.” The next day on Tue., Nov. 1: “The Caribbean is a typical “hot bed” for late season development & will be an area that needs to closely watched for additional development over the next 1-2 weeks or so. In fact, most global models shows low pressure trying to develop over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic – perhaps not far from Florida – by next week”.
Until Sun., Nov. 6th, the global forecast models had been at great odds as to whether or not a tropical system would develop not to mention location & where a storm might go. While the GFS forecast models were pretty consistent/insistent the previous week with development, it had wide swings in location & intensity. The European model generally showed only very weak low pressure or nothing at all. But then on Nov. 6th – 4 days before the Fl. landfall, most of the global models finally jumped “onboard” with tropical development over the SW Atlantic emanating from an upper level (500mb, ~ 30,000 feet) low & trough in the same general area.
The graph below from Brian Hong-An Tang, Associate Professor University at Albany – SUNY Dept. Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences shows the errors in kilometers from 24 through 96 hours. It should be noted there were several models not initializing Nicole at 96 hours (4 days). Unfortunately there is no data – in this particular sample – that includes the European model. In general… the model errors at 72 hours & less were not terribly bad with the model errors pretty tightly clustered & – in general – respectable. A list of the model abbreviations (key) * here *.

Once on to the potential development, forecast models fairly quickly became pretty locked in on general movement, strength & timing. But at 4+ days out, there were several models – the European included – that failed to show much development of the low pressure area that eventually became “Nicole”. Ultimately, the key to the track forecast was a narrow upper level ridge building north of Nicole that would push the tropical cyclone west, even a little southwest before an approaching upper level trough of low pressure helped create an alleyway from Fl. through the Appalachians which would be the path of least resistance that Nicole needed to turn northwest then north then N/NE.
500mb (~30,000 feet) forecast for Nov., 9 followed by Nov. 11th:


Initially – for about 24 hours or so – Nicole was subtropical technically lacking a pure warm core that had frontal features. While scientifically correct, I felt the distinction caused confusion for our viewers & listeners & muddled our messaging (similar to “post-tropical storm Sandy in the Northeast in 2012). I implored our newsroom to only use the name of the storm – ‘Nicole’ – & to not get caught up in semantics with a storm I fully expected to become tropical & that would be very damaging for especially our coast & St. Johns River. In other words, I wanted folks to understand Nicole would be a significant late season storm. Always remember: there’s no such thing as “just a” – any & all storms can be dangerous & have nuances that can be “surprising” & dangerous. So I worked tirelessly to communicate the threats while not going overboard with “the sky is falling”. That’s a delicate balance & communication especially if your home has a tree on it or is flooded. Then Nicole does out to be severe for your exact location.

Another serious aspect of the forecast & communicating the threats was the good ol’ forecast cone. Now 20 years in the making, the pros are solid but the cons are getting in the way. Case & point: once the cone narrows – which demonstrates a high confidence forecast – some thought you were outside of the “impact zone” if you were no longer in the cone. So following the lead of a NHC graphic (good idea!), the First Alert Weather Team consistently showed the cone while at the same time showing the wind wind field of tropical storm force winds. I also had a graphic created showing Ian from just 6 weeks earlier vs. Nicole impacts. This proved to work well for many viewers/listeners.

The narrow forecast cone below vs. the wind field in the 2nd image:


“Spot on” First Alert Forecast Sunday, Nov. 6th:
All eyes are on the tropics this week as development is likely to occur as low pressure heads toward Florida. Coastal impacts will be high and will stretch far from the storm center. Magnitude of impacts will be track-dependent, so stay tuned. @ActionNewsJax #flwx #scwx pic.twitter.com/UWAIUvM6n4
Wed.-Thu., Nov. 9-10 rainfall:


First Alert Doppler HD as the eye of Nicole approaches the coast at 1AM EST:


Front St., Fernandina Beach:

#firstalertwx from Joe along A1A coast, St. Johns Co early Wed., 11/09 @ActionNewsJax @WOKVNews pic.twitter.com/eNC0tZ4XxU
Downtown Jacksonville St. Johns River flooding which fell about a foot short of Irma’s crest in 2017…

#firstalertwx Landon Circle, d’town Jacksonville just after midnight Fri., 11/11 @ActionNewsJax @WOKVNews pic.twitter.com/NlEN3ZF2Jy
Tree on a home on Jacksonville’s Northside:


Crescent Beach severe erosion:

Action News Jax Robert Grant reporting on the severe Southern St. Johns Co. beach erosion:
Summer Haven funding controversy
Action News Jax Kennedy Dendy on FEMA & storm recovery:
Waiting for storm recovery funding
The lighter side of Nicole as man’s best friend takes a “bath”:
#firstalertwx video of the day! 🙂 … from Steph Bollerud, St. Augustine. as man’s best friend, Kenny makes the best of a day full of flooding. @ActionNewsJax @WOKVNews pic.twitter.com/mPLLJOrSBC
First Alert Weather Team “at attention” 🙂 ….. L-R: Corey Simma, Garrett Bedenbaugh, “Chief”, Trevor Gibbs…

Making sure the office studio light is in working order:

On the air live w/ Rich Jones, 104.5 WOKV – crucial partnership – radio & t.v….

The Jacksonville N.W.S. preliminary Nicole summary/survey:
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT…HURRICANE NICOLE…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 PM EST THU NOV 17 2022
NOTE: THE DATA SHOWN HERE ARE PRELIMINARY….AND SUBJECT TO UPDATES AND CORRECTIONS AS APPROPRIATE.
THIS REPORT INCLUDES EVENTS OCCURRING WHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT…OR WHEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH NICOLE
OR ITS REMNANTS WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. COUNTIES INCLUDED…ALACHUA…BAKER…BRADFORD…CAMDEN…CLAY… COLUMBIA…DUVAL…FLAGLER…GILCHRIST…GLYNN…MARION…NASSAU…PUTNAM…ST JOHNS…SUWANNEE…UNION
NOV 17…UPDATED FOR…CAMDEN AND NASSAU COUNTY IMPACTS
NOV 17…UPDATED FOR…
A. LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE/MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK GUSTS
———————————————————————
METAR OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10 METERS AND WIND AVERAGING IS 2 MINUTES
———————————————————————
LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/
LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME
DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)
———————————————————————
KGNV-GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT FL
29.68 -82.27 995.0 10/1853 090/027 10/1741 050/054 10/1608
KSGJ-SAINT AUGUSTINE AIRPORT FL
29.97 -81.33 1001.2 10/1356 070/044 10/1310 060/053 10/1303
KNRB-MAYPORT NAVAL STATION FL
30.39 -81.42 1001.4 10/1952 080/039 10/1511 080/053 10/1509
KJAX-JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL
30.49 -81.69 1000.6 10/1956 060/034 10/1425 040/052 10/1422
KCRG-CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT FL
30.33 -81.52 1000.9 10/1953 080/028 10/1455 070/050 10/1503
KNIP-JACKSONVILLE NAS FL
30.24 -81.68 999.5 10/1853 060/030 10/1445 120/046 10/1916
KSSI-ST. SIMONS/MALCOLM MCKINNON AIRPORT GA
31.15 -81.38 1003.9 10/2153 080/028 10/1525 080/046 10/1524
K28J-PALATKA FL
29.66 -81.69 998.3 10/1835 100/031 10/1535 100/044 10/1535
KFHB-FERNANDINA BEACH FL
30.61 -81.45 1002.35 10/2035 080/033 10/1515 080/043 10/1415
KFIN-BUNNELL FL
29.47 -81.20 998.9 10/1215 050/029 10/1035 070/041 10/1135
KJAX-JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL
30.49 -81.69 999.3 10/1950 080/024 10/1550 060/040 10/1410
KAMG-BACON COUNTY AIRPORT GA
31.54 -82.50 1001.6 10/2253 120/017 10/2355 100/037 11/0122
KOCF-OCALA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL
29.18 -82.22 992.0 10/1751 130/025 10/1820 130/036 10/1817
KBQK-BRUNSWICK/GLYNCO AIPORT GA
31.15 -81.47 1004.0 10/2215 090/022 10/2055 090/036 10/2055
K24J-LIVE OAK FL
30.30 -83.02 995.2 10/2215 350/024 10/1615 350/035 10/1615
KAYS-WAYCROSS GA
31.25 -82.40 1000.8 10/2215 120/020 10/2155 050/035 10/1715
REMARKS: FLAGLER COUNTY AWOS DATA WAS NOT AVAILABLE FROM NOV 10
1235Z TO NOV 11 0255Z.
NON-METAR OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
———————————————————————
LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/
LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME
DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)
———————————————————————
1423W-WEATHERSTEM MARINELAND FL
29.67 -81.21 998.5 10/1230 090/050 10/1120 090/063 10/1120
2.7
XHUP-HUGUENOT PARK
30.42 -81.41 1002 10/1946 060/050 10/1456 060/063 10/1456
12.2
1426W-WEATHERSTEM ST JOHNS COUNTY FL
29.99 -81.32 070/052 10/1330 090/062 10/1340
3.9
XJAK-BUCK ISLAND
30.40 -81.47 1000 10/1950 070/039 10/1515 070/054 10/1515
10.4
XHSE-WEATHERFLOW CRESCENT BEACH SUMMERHOUSE
29.72 -81.23 1000 10/1820 350/031 10/2015 350/050 10/1955
5.2
XJEK-JEKYLL ISLAND GA
31.05 -81.41 9999 060/032 10/1514 060/043 10/1524
10.4
REMARKS: DATA PROVIDED BY WEATHERFLOW-TEMPEST NETWORK AND
WEATHERSTEM.
B. MARINE OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
———————————————————————
LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/
LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME
DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)
———————————————————————
SAUF1-CMAN STATION SAINT AUGUSTINE FL
29.86 -81.26 1000.8 10/1900 040/045 10/1210 060/061 10/1303
8.8
GTXF1-NERR STATION GUANA TOLOMAO MATANZAS FL
29.66 -81.22 1001.0 10/2000 130/022 10/1815
4.4
MYPF1-NOS STATION MAYPORT FL
30.40 -81.43 1001.9 10/1954 070/037 10/1454 070/047 10/1500
11.2
FRDF1-FERNANDINA BCH, FL NOS
30.67 -81.47 1002.4 10/2042 010/023 10/1054 010/036 10/0906
8.8
BKBF1-I295 BUCKMAN BRIDGE
30.19 -81.69 999.6 10/1836 100/036 10/1830 050/046 10/1330
11.1
NFDF1-NAVY FUEL DEPOT, ST JOHNS RV, FL NOS
30.40 -81.63 1000.8 10/2006 050/032 10/1430 050/042 10/1430
REMARKS: THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (HS) AT BUOY 41117 REACHED 5.7 METERS OR 18.7 FEET, WITH A PEAK WAVE (HMAX) OF 9.9 METERS OR 32.5 FEET ON 11/10 AROUND 1330 UTC. BUOY 41112 MEASURED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (HS) TO 4.5 METERS OR 14.7 FEET, WITH PEAK WAVE (HMAX) OF 8.4 METERS OR 27.5 FEET ON 11/10 AROUND 1430 UTC. DATA PROVIDED BY SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY.
C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 0000 UTC NOV 10 UNTIL 0000 UTC NOV 12
———————————————————————
CITY/TOWN COUNTY ID RAINFALL
LAT LON (IN)
DEG DECIMAL
———————————————————————
1 NE FRUIT COVE ST JOHNS FW6950 4.14
30.11 -81.61
1 ENE MANDARIN DUVAL FW6993 4.12
30.16 -81.63
4 NE BAKERSVILLE ST JOHNS FW8076 3.67
29.94 -81.44
2 ESE SAN MATEO PUTNAM FL-PT-24 3.33
29.59 -81.55
5 NW INTERLACHEN PUTNAM DW9112 3.31
29.67 -81.95
5 NW SALT SPRINGS MARION LGRF1 3.25
29.40 -81.81
5 NW GAINESVILLE ALACHUA EW3527 3.22
29.73 -82.42
1 NW ORANGE PARK CLAY AW004 3.20
30.18 -81.73
3 NW UNIVERSITY OF FLORI ALACHUA DW8556 3.13
29.67 -82.39
NAS JACKSONVILLE DUVAL KNIP 2.94
30.22 -81.67
CRAIG AIRFIELD DUVAL KCRG 2.67
30.33 -81.52
GAINESVILLE ALACHUA KGNV 2.55
29.70 -82.28
ST AUGUSTINE ST JOHNS KSGJ 2.42
29.97 -813167.00
JACKSONVILLE INT AIRPORT DUVAL KJAX 2.17
30.50 -81.68
D. INLAND FLOODING…
———————————————————————
———————————————————————
E. MAXIMUM OBSERVED WATER LEVEL (WL)…
———————————————————————
ID CITY/TOWN COUNTY STATE WL DATUM DATE/ SOURCE
OR LOCATION (FT) TIME
———————————————————————
PELF1 PELLICER CREEK ST JOHNS FL 3.82 MHHW 10/1700 USGS
29.6692 -81.2597
BKBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER, DUVAL FL 3.82 MHHW 10/1906 NOS
30.1924 -81.6889
FRDF1 FERNANDINA BEAC NASSAU FL 3.81 MHHW 10/1900 NOS
30.6717 -81.4650
JAKF1 CEDAR RIVER AT DUVAL FL 3.73 MHHW 10/1900 USGS
30.2819 -81.7406
TRJF1 TROUT RIVER AT DUVAL FL 3.72 MHHW 10/1715 USGS
30.4172 -81.6967
BRNG1 ST SIMONS ISLAN GLYNN GA 3.67 MHHW 10/1500 USGS
31.1333 -81.3967
MYPF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.58 MHHW 10/1506 NOS
30.3917 -81.4300
BUCF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.57 MHHW 10/1915 USGS
30.1900 -81.6664
DMSF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.53 MHHW 10/1612 NOS
30.3867 -81.5583
GCEF1 ST JOHNS RIVER ST JOHNS FL 3.52 MHHW 10/2000 USGS
30.0058 -81.6150
CSAG1 SEA CAMP DOCK O CAMDEN GA 3.47 MHHW 10/1600 USGS
30.7644 -81.4714
BRJF1 BROWARD RIVER B DUVAL FL 3.46 MHHW 10/1800 NOS
30.4433 -81.6683
DPBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.45 MHHW 10/1630 USGS
30.3858 -81.5583
SJLF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.36 MHHW 10/1800 USGS
30.3222 -81.6656
CCJF1 CLAPBOARD CREEK DUVAL FL 3.34 MHHW 10/1630 USGS
30.4483 -81.5183
MSBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.26 MHHW 10/1806 NOS
30.3200 -81.6583
SPUF1 DEEP CREEK AT S ST JOHNS FL 3.15 MHHW 10/0230 USGS
29.7294 -81.4869
SRPF1 ST JOHNS RIVER ST JOHNS FL 3.11 MHHW 10/2115 USGS
29.8000 -81.5500
DNSF1 DUNNS CREEK NEA PUTNAM FL 3.10 MHHW 10/1315 USGS
29.5775 -81.6264
DCDF1 DUNN CREEK AT D DUVAL FL 3.04 MHHW 10/1730 USGS
30.4550 -81.5969
PALF1 ST JOHNS RIVER PUTNAM FL 2.94 MHHW 10/2345 USGS
29.5961 -81.6833
JULF1 JULINGTON CREEK DUVAL FL 2.91 MHHW 10/2130 USGS
30.1433 -81.5558
PCUF1 POTTSBURG CREEK DUVAL FL 2.79 MHHW 10/1745 USGS
30.2869 -81.5700
SRWG1 SATILLA RIVER A CAMDEN GA 1.72 MHHW 10/1745 USGS
30.9744 -81.7258
REMARKS:
F. TORNADOES…
———————————————————————
(DIST)CITY/TOWN COUNTY DATE/ EF SCALE
LAT LON (DEG DECIMAL) TIME(UTC) (IF KNOWN)
DESCRIPTION
———————————————————————
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY…
———————————————————————
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
———————————————————————
FLAGLER 0 0 0
DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS CONTINUE ACROSS FLAGLER COUNTY. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AFFECTED FLAGLER COUNTY AND LED TO SUBSTANTIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ORDERED EVACUATIONS FOR ZONE A ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 9TH. THE ZONE-A EVACUATION AREA CONSISTS OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OR THE REGION BETWEEN THE INTRACOASTAL AND OCEANFRONT, GENERALLY ALONG STATE ROAD A1A. PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ESTIMATES FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY’S CUMULATIVE IMPACT IS 23.7 MILLION DOLLARS WITH 299 STRUCTURES DAMAGED. EXTENSIVE PROPERTY DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE BEVERLY BEACH AND SOUTH FLAGLER BEACH AREAS; IN TOTAL, 24 STRUCTURES SUSTAINED MAJOR DAMAGE DUE PRELIMINARY ESTIMATED STORM SURGE OF 3 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND . A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT SURVEY INDICATED 2 FEET OF INUNDATION AT THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTH FLAGLER AVENUE AND SOUTH 25TH STREET, 1 FOOT AND 9 INCHES OF INUNDATION AT BINGS LANDING, AND 1 FOOT AND 7 INCHES OF INUNDATION AT THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTH DAYTONA AVENUE AND SOUTH 26TH STREET. A PORTION OF STATE ROAD A1A COLLAPSED AFTER BEING UNDERCUT AS STORM SURGE AND WAVE ACTION ENTIRELY ERODED THE ADJACENT DUNE. TREE AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE COUNTY. A PEAK WIND GUST OF 72 MPH WAS RECORDED AT MARINELAND AT 6:20 AM.
ST JOHNS 0 0 0
DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS ARE STILL ONGOING. SOME PROPERTIES THAT RECEIVED SURGE FLOODING WHERE IN THE MATANZAS INLET AREA. MANY AREAS WERE FLOODED IN THE DAVIS SHORES AREA, CRESCENT BEACH, BUTLER BEACH, DAVIS SHORES, ANASTASIA ISLAND, VILANO BEACH, AND PORTIONS OF ST AUGUSTINE. PARTS OF A1A WERE UNDERMINED AROUND VILANO BEACH. SEVERE DAMAGE OCCURRED TO THE BEACHES AND OTHER ROADS ALONG THE COAST. SO FAR, ESTIMATED STORM SURGE AND WIND DAMAGE LOSS IS AROUND 24.1 MILLION DOLLARS.
PUTNAM 0 0 0
SOME DAMAGE ASSESSMENT STILL ONGOING. MANY REPORTS OF RESIDENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER IN EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH MAINLY MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN DRAYTON ISLAND, FRUITLAND, WELAKA, EAST PALATKA, SAN MATEO, AND NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY. A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AS WELL.
GLYNN 0 0 0
STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS STILL BEING DONE. MANY AREAS OF STORM SURGE FLOODING REPORTED FROM JEKYLL ISLAND TO AREAS IN BRUNSWICK AND ST SIMONS ISLAND. MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE FLOODING WAS REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ST SIMONS ISLAND AND IN THE CITY OF BRUNSWICK.
CAMDEN 0 0 0
DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS ARE ONGOING IN CAMDEN COUNTY. MOST IMPACTS WERE NEAR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO COASTAL WATERWAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRED AROUND HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING, NOVEMBER 11TH WHERE MOST STORM SURGE INUNDATION DAMAGE OCCURRED IN DOWNTOWN ST. MARYS AREA AND CUJO POINT, A SMALL SUBDIVISION IN THE DOVER BLUFF AREA IN NORTHEAST CAMDEN COUNTY. AROUND 9:30 AM ON 11/10, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION, SURGE FLOODING, AND FLOOD WATER ENTERED THE DUNE SYSTEM ON CUMBERLAND ISLAND. AT 9:55 AM, CUMBERLAND ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE EMPLOYEES REPORTED WATER TOPPED THE SEAWALL AND MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN ST. MARYS ON ST. MARYS STREET. THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY TIDE STATION ON CUMBERLAND ISLAND AT THE SEA CAMP DOCK RECORDED A PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 3.47 FT ABOVE MHHW DATUM ON NOVEMBER 11TH AT 11 AM. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.7 FEET ABOVE MHHW. THIS WAS THE HIGHEST TIDE RECORDED AT THIS GAUGE SINCE HURRICANE MATTHEW IN OCTOBER 2016, WHEN THE PEAK WATER LEVEL WAS 3.48 FT ABOVE MHHW. ON 11/10 AROUND 2:20 PM, SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRED IN DOWNTOWN ST. MARYS NEAR THE WATERFRONT AT ST. MARYS HOWARD GILMAN MEMORIAL WATERFRONT PARK, BOAT RAMP, AND ON RESIDENTIAL ROADS NEAR ST MARYS STREET W AND ST MARYS STREET E. TWO BRIDGES WERE CLOSED IN ST. MARYS. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 39 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT THE STAFFORD GAUGE AND ALONG I-95.  IN ST. MARYS, TWO HOUSES WERE DAMAGED FROM FALLING TREES, BOTH AWAY FROM THE WATER, AND SEVERAL HOMES AND BUSINESSES NEAR THE ST. MARYS RIVER THAT HAD WATER INTRUSION INSIDE THE STRUCTURES. ONE ST. MARYS RESIDENT TWO BLOCKS NORTH OF THE WATERFRONT REPORTED 7 INCHES OF WATER IN ONE OF THEIR BUILDINGS. AT CUJO POINT, RESIDENTS HAD AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES OF WATER IN THEIR YARDS. THERE WAS ONE RESIDENCE WITH APPROXIMATELY 10 INCHES OF WATER IN THEIR LIVING QUARTERS. THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAS A LARGE VOLUME OF MARSH GRASS TO CLEAN UP FROM YARDS AND THE ROADWAY. THERE WERE 5 BRIDGES IMPACTED BY STORM SURGE AND TIDAL FLOODING, AND ALL WERE CLEARED BY GDOT AS HAVING NO DAMAGE. THE FOUR ST. MARYS BRIDGES IMPACTED WERE HIGHWAY 40 AT DARK ENTRY CREEK, BORRELL BLVD, SUGARMILL BLVD (SOUTH DARK ENTRY CK), AND THE NORTH RIVER CAUSEWAY. AT ITS HIGHEST POINT, WATER WAS ON THE TRAVEL PORTION OF THE CAUSEWAY. IN UNINCORPORATED AREAS, THE BRIDGE ON HARRIETTS BLUFF ROAD JUST WEST OF SHEFFIELD ISLAND RD. WAS IMPACTED BUT NOT DAMAGED. SHEFFIELD ISLAND RD WAS BRIEFLY UNDER WATER, AND A ONE MILE STRETCH OF DIRT ROAD IN THE DOVER BLUFF AREA, NEAR CUJO POINT, WAS FLOODED THEN WASHED AWAY. THREE TORNADO WARNINGS WERE ISSUED DURING THE EVENT WITH NO INDICATIONS OF TORNADO DAMAGE. RAIN BANDS CREATED BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A TREE DOWN/POWER OUTAGE INCIDENT NORTHWEST OF WOODBINE WAS DETERMINED TO BE FROM THE WIND GUSTS AND NOT A TORNADO.
DUVAL 0 0 0
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND SIGNIFICANT DUNE LOSS OCCURRED ALONG AREAS BEACHES DURING THE STORM. MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO BEACH WALKOVERS. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE WITH A FEW PLANKS BLOWN OUT. MAYPORT NOS STORM SURGE WATER LEVEL WAS 3.58 FEET MHHW. A BOAT BROKE LOOSE FROM THE MARINA IN ORTEGA RIVER AND CAUGHT FIRE AND SUNK. IN THE ST JOHNS RIVER, MEASURED WATER LEVEL WAS UP TO 3.25 FEET MHHW. MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRED UP AND DOWN THE ST JOHNS RIVER WITH FLOODING REPORTED IN THE TROUT RIVER AREA. RIVERSIDE MEMORIAL PARK WAS FLOODED, WITH WATERS MOVING INTO THE GROUND FLOOR OF THE ADJACENT BUILDING AT PARK LANE CONDO. INUNDATION IN RIVERSIDE REACHED TO OSCEOLA AND OAK STREETS. IN SAN MARCO, INUNDATION OCCURRED ALONG LASALLE STREET. STREET FLOODING OCCURRED IN PIRATES COVE IN ORTEGA RIVER AREA. WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED AS A LARGE TREE FELL ONTO A HOME IN THE NORTHSIDE RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE COUNTY. AN ELECTRICAL FIRE DESTROYED AN APARTMENT BUILDING AT ISLAND POINTE COMPLEX ALONG THE TROUT RIVER. NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES REPORTED WERE ABOUT 25,000.
NASSAU 0 0 0
IMPACTS FROM NICOLE WERE LIMITED MAINLY FROM YULEE EAST TOWARD THE COAST. MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS REPORTED ACROSS FERNANDINA BEACH AND AMELIA CITY. AT 10:54 AM ON THU NOV 10TH, THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE STATION ALONG THE AMELIA RIVER IN FERNANDINA BEACH RECORDED A PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 3.81 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW). MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.5 FEET ABOVE MHHW. THIS WAS THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL SINCE HURRICANE MATTHEW IN OCTOBER 2016, WHEN THE WATER LEVEL AT THIS GAUGE PEAKED AT 4.13 FEET ABOVE MHHW. ON WEDNESDAY NOV. 9TH AROUND 9:50 AM, NASSAU COUNTY FIRE RESCUE REPORTED TIDAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH FRONT STREET. AT 11:12 AM, NASSAU COUNTY FIRE RESCUE REPORTED ESCAMBIA STREET WAS FLOODED AN IMPASSABLE DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING INUNDATION DUE TO THE STRONG LOCAL NORTHEASTER AHEAD OF NICOLE. AT 11 AM, NASSAU COUNTY FIRE RESCUE REPORTED THAT DADE STREET WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATER. AROUND 815 AM ON THU NOV. 10TH, MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE HARBOR MARINA IN FERNANDINA BEACH. THE FERNANDINA BEACH FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED FLOODING ALONG N FRONT STREET. DADE STREET WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. AROUND 1038 AM ON NOV. 11TH, A STRUCTURE BENEATH THE SHAVE ICWW BRIDGE HAD ABOUT 6-12 INCHES OF WATER INSIDE. AT 10:41 AM, NASSAU COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED STREET FLOODING ON PINEY ISLAND DRIVE WITH ABOUT 1 FOOT OVER ROADWAY. WEATHER OBSERVATIONS MEASURED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH IN YULEE AND FERNANDINA BEACH. AROUND 2.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN FERNANDINA BEACH.
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